As Nigeria marks its 48th independence anniversary, it is another opportunity to review its achievements, especially as they relate to its lofty goal of making it to the league of the world’s top 20 economies by the year 2020.
Tied to this goal, tagged Vision 2020, is the administration’s seven-point agenda hinged on power and energy, food security, wealth creation, development of the transport sector, land reform, security and peace, as well as education.
However, the question is whether the government is working hard enough to make the country one of the 20 most developed economies by 2020.
Is the goal achievable considering the high level of decadence in the various sectors such as infrastructural development, power supply, education and industry.
Worthy of note, however, is the general belief that the administration of President Umaru Yar’Adua, which evolved the 2020 Vision, is equal to the task of catapulting the national economy into the world’s top bracket.
For instance, at its 36th annual general meeting, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) commended Yar’Adua for sustaining growth in the economy.
It specifically notes the increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 6.0 per cent in 2006 to 7.4 per cent in 2007, as well as the reduction in inflation rate (Year-on-Year) from 8.2 per cent in 2006 to 5.46 per cent in 2007.
The positive indices include the increase in foreign reserves from 42.3 billion dollars in 2006 to 51.33 billion dollars in 2007, which rose to N59.70 billion as at March 31, 2008.
Others are the remarkable improvement in ports administration and the drive toward 48-hour import clearing at the ports.
MAN further notes that the manufacturing sector recorded improved capacity utilisation from 44.2 per cent as at December 2006 to 50.5 per cent in the corresponding period of 2007.
However, this level falls short of the projected 70 per cent under the National Economic Empowerment Development Strategy agenda.
But in spite of these positive developments, MAN President Bashir Borodo says that the manufacturing sector, which is one of the areas critical to the attainment of the Vision 2020, has not been able to achieve its full potential because of certain challenges.
Borodo lists the challenges to include unsteady power supply, dilapidated road network, absence of defined master plan for railway development, rising cost of automotive gas oil and gas, as well as uncoordinated tax administration.
Others are smuggling and trade malpractice, incessant increase in the Monetary Policy Rate, difficulty in accessing long-term credit for small-scale industries, achievement of a single digit interest rate and insecurity of lives and property due to activities of hoodlums, militants and pirates.
The MAN president, however, believes that Vision 2020 can be achieved if the seven-point agenda is well implemented.
“We believe that in spite of the short-term difficulties that we are facing as a country, this time may well be the best time for Nigeria .
“We have a democratically elected government; we achieved a peaceful transition from a civilian administration to another, and God has blessed us with oil windfall,’’ he says.
Borodo, however, advises that the gap in infrastructural development be bridged, using the abundant human and natural resources available.
He also cautions the government against believing that the current oil windfall will last forever.
“If we use the present resources prudently, we and the next generation will enjoy the benefits forever,’’ he says.
Industry players hinge the achievement of Vision 2020 on education and human capital development.
They say that these are not only critical to Nigeria’s economic development, but also vital to making the country competitive in the international arena.
The recent rating of Nigeria by Transparency International at 121 out of 180 countries on the corruption index shows the country dropping 26 steps from the 2007 rating of 147.
If this improvement is sustained and corruption brought to the barest minimum, Nigeria could be on the way to achieving Vision 2020, analysts say.
For Prof. Pat Utomi, of the Lagos Business School, who spoke at the recent 11th Annual Conference of the Nigerian Association of Industrial Pharmacists, Nigeria must place sufficient emphasis on its human resources to achieve the objectives of Vision 2020.
According to him, for Nigeria to become one of the top 20 economies in the world, it must effectively build its human capital.
“If I am to choose two things that the government must do, I will choose education and health.’’
With a highly skilled and healthy population, it will be easy for the country to achieve Vision 20:2020, he says.
Expressing concern about the slow pace of development, he notes that the country had in the past taken retrogressive steps that have “de-industrialised’’ it.
For instance, he says that the manufacturing sector, which accounted for 14 per cent of the country’s GDP in the 1980s, now accounts for only four per cent.
But is there any hope of Nigeria achieving Vision 2020? Will there be any light at the end of the tunnel?
The answer is in the affirmative, going by the comments of some industry players.
The Minister of Commerce and Industry, Chief Charles Ugwuh, has consistently emphasised that industrialisation is the answer to Vision 2020.
Industrialisation will not only assist the country to realise Yar’Adua’s seven-point agenda, but also ease the route to Vision 2020.
According to him, what is required is an industrial strategy that empowers Nigerians to add value and also be able to produce both for domestic and export.
The minister says the strategy which the government is adopting to achieve sustainable industrialisation is through the Cluster Concept of Free Trade Zones, Industrial Parks, Enterprises Zones, Incubators and Export Processing Zones.
“Our new industrial development strategy is anchored on the cluster concept which will enable us to concentrate efforts and resources on creating a conducive atmosphere for the private sector to thrive,’’ he says.
Also, Chief Asibong EneObong, the Director of the MAN Liaison Office in Abuja, believes that Vision 2020 is achievable.
He, however, expresses reservations about the Cluster Concept which, he says, does not take into consideration existing industries operating outside industrial zones.
Ene Obong wonders what becomes of these industries.
“As far as I am concerned, the utterances of the government are reasonable, well directed to a profitable end and the polices are good enough,’’ he, however, says.
The MAN director notes the new rating of Nigeria on the corruption index and describes it as ‘’gladdening’’.
If there is a yearly improvement, then the country will be moving gradually toward achieving Vision 20:2020, he says.
Ene Obong hinges the success of the vision mostly on the need for attitude change on the part of the people.
“What everybody should do to help this graph to go up is to eschew criminality; everybody should check each other and be patriotic as the achievement of a nation depends on the people,’’ he says.
According to him, the nation must emulate China which looked inward for more than 10 years through the development of infrastructure and backward integration.
The Asian country came out strong, competing with the developed countries, he notes.
“At the end of the day, that is by 2020, the nation will have a lot if we can achieve between 60 and 70 per cent of the goals we have set for ourselves,’’ the director adds.
The citizens believe that if the seven-point agenda is well implemented with sustained infrastructure development, efficient transport system, especially the railway, as well as uninterrupted electricity supply, the country is on its way to achieving Vision 2020.
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